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So, in some grades for some players, the markets are soft. My experience goes back to the mid-1970's, so one could say I have seen this before. The first time was in tissue when simply, those with deep pockets overbuilt relative to demand, driving the prices down. In other times and other grades, there have been other reasons.

Do you know that at this point there are only two mills within the United States producing newsprint? Likely you don't and likely you don't care, for the chances you are one of those producers reading this column makes you the rare reader indeed.

The good news over the decades I have been watching the ups and downs is that companies are far more willing to take decisive, if reactive, action these days. In the olden days, the reaction to soft markets was to rent more warehouses. I once knew a company that had nearly a year's worth of flash dried pulp production in warehouses within two hundred miles of the mill where it was made.

Today, mills are shutdown and idled much quicker.

What does this mean?

Markets should recover much quicker (production aligned with demand of today, not yesterday). The poorer operating mills exit much quicker and their prolonged agony is not spread to their competitors.

In general, this is good news. It means marginal mills are not likely to drag down a certain grade, at least not for long, and each grade can get back to being a healthy business.

Jim Thompson is CEO of Paperitalo Publications.

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Get Jim Thompson's "Monograph on Purchasing." Available here.

 


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